A climate confession (Or Why I became a 'denier')

Once I believed in the theory of global warming. I thought, quite sincerely, that mankind was going to destroy life on Earth with an excess of CO2.

Being of an enquiring mind, I began to look at the figures and theories to gain a greater understanding of the subject to see if there was more I could do. What actually happened was that all my researches gave me quite a large reality check. The physics just didn't stack up. The increased CO2 levels actually lagged, not led an increase in temperature. There were proper, peer reviewed scientific papers about ice cores which proved this beyond all reasonable doubt.

Then I began to look at the history of climate over the past few millennia. Ice (or frost) fairs on the Thames? Greenland with thriving agricultural communities? Vineyards in northern England? Northwest passage ice free? All of these things are well recorded throughout our history. All well before human mass industrialised society. What on Earth was going on?

I looked at the effect of volcanic eruptions upon regional climate. I looked at the sunspot cycles, magnetosphere variations, the cosmic ray correlations of cloud formation, and then had a second long cool look at the original theory of CO2 climate change. In order to 'work' the theory needs an infinitely thick atmosphere, which planet Earth doesn't have. In addition, CO2 only trapped sunlight in two specific wavelengths. This was a bit of a revelation to me. My own amateur research, designed to gain a greater understanding of man made climate change actually led me to a change of heart.

The doom laden predictions in the media also made me pause for thought. Then I began to look at the old 'new ice age' predictions from the 1970's. Industry was on the decline in the Western hemisphere and people were already talking about a 'post industrial society' as early as the 1980's. So where was all this extra CO2 coming from? Cars alone? Yes, but improved engine technology is resulting in cleaner air. I remember what walking along the streets could be like before cleaner burning car engines became commonplace. The diesel fumes alone used to give me massive migraine type headaches. The same for jet engine technology. Power stations were becoming more efficient, and fluidised bed technology and reclaim technology was resulting in air cleaner than I could remember. Especially in the cities. Smog is less common than it was, and I remember how downright dirty the air in Birmingham, England could be back in the 1970's. In the late 1990's I genuinely thought we were winning the war on human produced air pollution.

Then there were the long range forecasts. My faith in those disappeared back in the 1980's after a series of weather events were gotten completely wrong by no less august a body than the UK Meteorological Office. They weren't just wrong, they made the opposite prediction. Likewise, all the predictions of global catastrophe I've been reading since the 1970's all have one major factor in common; they haven't happened.

When I looked more deeply at the physics and geophysics, I realised the doom and gloom predictions couldn't happen. For example, one prediction was about the Gulf Stream grinding to a sudden halt. To understand why this cannot happen you have to look at the Earth's ocean currents as a whole. The northwards flowing Gulf stream has a correlating deep water sister that provides recirculation of arctically cooled water, and as warm water flows on the surface, this flows underneath it to rise southward in warmer tropical waters and be reheated to become the Gulf stream again. If you think how many cubic miles of water this shifts in a day, you begin to see how idiotic this specific prediction is. The Gulf stream, and North Atlantic drift are part of the global Thermohaline (THC) circulation of ocean waters. The energy level changes for such an event would require a massive freezing, not warming. As I have posited before, the Physics just doesn't stack up. The disaster predictions are, if viewed objectively, downright anti-scientific. They are almost without exception emotional, and have more to do with politics than science.

Now there is a warming effect from greenhouse gases. Without it the Earth would be much colder. This warming effect has a limit though, and can be thought of as a blanket around the Earth. This 'blanket' also radiates a varying amount of energy out into space. Like an actual woollen blanket it can only retain so much heat energy. Anyone who has actually spent a night sleeping under the stars can confirm this. It can get awfully cold, even in tropical climes at night, and that is exactly what half our little blue green home world is sitting in; night. Year in, year out. Out of the glare of the sun, the temperature of space is very cold. Minus two hundred and seventy six degrees Celsius cold. Cold enough to freeze the very oxygen in your haemoglobin, and then some. That is what Earth orbits in. Without the suns heat there would be no little blue green world at all, because all the complex systems that produce the water and air could not happen. This is a very simplified view of an extremely complex system, but for all that is nonetheless valid because it works as it does.

There was also the political aspect. Back in my activist days (Tree planting, campaigning against green belt development), it was all rather genteel; and apart from raised voices in meetings and threats of lying down in front of earth moving machinery, the Environmental lobby was a small and mostly local affair. In the 1990's however, I noticed new voices at the back. More strident, more extreme. Quite frankly what the more conservative of our number called "serious wierdo's" were joining the movement. Those who didn't baulk at using violent tactics. The extreme Animal Rights activists, previously a minority, became mainstream. As did the anti-roads protesters. In the face of the new extreme Environmentalism I felt sidelined, my more low key views about a balanced environment ignored. Gradually I stopped going to meetings and disassociated myself from the various causes. Then when GreenPeace started telling lies over Brent Spar that was the last straw for me and as I watched the other causes like the World Wildlife Fund and RSPCA become ever more politicised, I knew that they were not causes I could support any more.

Then there was Al Gore's film, 'an inconvenient truth'. That was so full of pseudo scientific nonsense that it actually made me actively disbelieve in man made climate change. It was partially because of the misrepresentations within that film that I became a 'climate change atheist'. Nothing to date has made me want to change that outlook. In fact as the pro man made climate change lobby grows ever more shrill and hysterical, calling people who don't agree with them 'Climate criminals', 'Climate change deniers' or in the pay of 'Big Oil' oh pur-leaze!, I grow ever more convinced that they have lost the debate. My reasoning is this, if they had truth on their side, they wouldn't need to call people names when they disagreed with them.

Someone is bankrolling these strident voices. Probably not directly, but there is a small number of very rich people who stand to lose big time if 'Carbon trading' doesn't pay off. Al Gore alone is reputed to have pumped three hundred million dollars into the cause of promoting the apocalyptic view. That's not loose change. It has been suggested that companies with a vested interest in 'Green' technology have been implicated in promoting the anthropogenic element.

This is my last word on the subject; any effect man has on the 'climate' is generally localised. CO2 alone can't be the culprit because it has both physics and history against it.

It's not that the climate doesn't change, it's just that any human element is minimal and overall, inconsequential. The climate changes without, and even in spite of humankind. Committing economic seppuku for something they had no control over will be a very sad epitaph for the Western democracies.

I like this man

Roger Helmer MEP, speaking in debate in the EU Parliament. A fuller version of his quite reasonable view that climate change alarmism is simply that; alarmism. Don't agree with everthing he says, but most is backed up by sound logic and calm appreciation of the facts, not the hype. Find it here. At 29 minutes and 18 seconds it's a bit of a long furrow to plough, but it had me nodding along in agreement.

H/T An Englishmans Castle

Where he and I fundamentally disagree is my contention that you have to have a vested interest, be economically and scientifically illiterate or have your head stuck up between your pert little buttocks to believe all the global warming climate scare stories. It's just weather, and to paraphrase a quote from the Rubaiyyat of Omar Khayyam;

“The moving clouds do rain, and having rained move on. Nor all thy clamouring nor all thy cries, can say that cloud was raining lies.”

Standing in the rain

Ah, good old ELO. I once lived around a mile up the road from their drummer, Bev Bevan. Nice bloke, and still breathing. He had a big place, think it was called 'Cornerways' or something like that, near the Warwickshire village of Rowington. Big old mock tudor house with a lawn the would give a New Brunswicker palpitations of jelousy (They like acre sized yards in New Brunswick. That and big decks. "Hey, honey, come sit on my big deck." or "Look at the size of my deck."). Wonder if he still owns it.

Damp foggy day all day today here on our part of Vancouver Island with visibility around 100 metres. Not a Sunday for getting out and about, just a day for snuggling down and keeping warm. Oh, and trying to fine tune the Synopsis for the current MSS. Next is the sequel, followed by an attempt to re-draft my half finished Cerberus trilogy.

Am watching the current financial crunch with a certain heaviness of heart. It had to come, but I would rather that it wasn't taking such a bite out of our capital as it is. No matter, we have to earn our way in this world, and that is what I and Wife are doing. Standing in the rain. Doing our best.

A small act of remembrance

Today is Remembrance or Armistice day, a national holiday in Canada, so I thought I'd dust off my Dad's old medals and post them. They're nothing special. No conspicuous bravery, no mentions in despatches, just four bits of metal that say 'He was there'.

Left to right:
France & Germany Star
The Italy Star
1939-1945 Star
War Medal

OMG

Proof of global warming? Or is it just that shrinking (Not) Arctic ice cap that's to blame?

H/T Theo Spark

Remembrance Sunday

Juno Beach, June 1944. Canadian Troops disembarking. In one of the LST's (Landing Ship Tank) pictured in the background is a (then) 19 year old Royal Naval Signals Rating who grew up to be my Dad.

Lest we forget.

Alternative food strategies

Wife wants to lose more weight. To do this she has enacted a new edict; that there shall be no more potatoes, pasta, rice or flour served at mealtimes. Nor shall there be any 'healthy' options ready meals. Yet the demand is that the high protein element of the meal (Chicken / Beef / Pork / Fish etc.) shall not be served just with green vegetables.

Being the chief cook and bottlewasher in the household, it falls to yours truly to come up with the goods. Being the obliging husband I am, I've been scratching my head to find a lower carbohydrate alternative that isn't too sweet, perfumed or pulpy for our mutual likings. As Wife likes to put it; "Here's a new challenge for you Jones." As always, I sigh heartily and brace myself unto the task. It's either that or divorce proceedings.

Finally, an answer to my culinary conundrum has been found; Hummus (Or Homous, whatever). A higher protein, lower carbohydrate alternative which can be adapted to go with just about anything. One problem I have with the store bought stuff is firstly it's a pricey alternative to rice, pasta or potatoes at CDN$1.99 for 100g, and secondly it's full of stuff like Sesame paste (Tahini) which I've always found leaves a slight bitter aftertaste. Notwithstanding, there have been two issues to address; firstly price, and secondly flavour.

The cost I take care of by buying dried chick peas and olive oil, the two main ingredients, in bulk. Last purchase of Chick peas was 500g (Just over a pound weight) at CDN$3.90 a kilo. Which works out at about CDN$1.95 (roughly 1GBP). For Olive Oil, I buy the cheap stuff a litre at a time, which is about CDN$7-8 (around 4GBP /litre) if you buy carefully. A litre will make a lot of Hummus. Garlic I generally get at CDN$2 for 3 cloves, and a 3lb bag of Onions for CDN1.60.

Flavour, well, I've taken to adding any savoury spice / vegetable I fancy after the base mix has been prepared. Sea salt and black pepper with Parsnip. Broccoli with a pinch of Parmesan is nice. Beetroot with salt and pepper. Coriander and / or Cumin. Any of these are easy to do and damned impressive is you have someone to impress with your limited culinary skills.

Garlic Hummus Base mix method:
Stick half a pound (about 250g) of dried chick peas in a basin and pour in a litre or so of water. Leave to soak overnight then boil chick peas until soft. Failing that, put the whole shooting match in a saucepan and bring to boil, then turn down the heat and simmer (slow boil over minimum heat) until the peas can be mashed with a fork. Take off heat and drain for a couple of minutes.

Using a potato masher or food processor, mash the peas. Fine chop a largish onion and soften thoroughly in a little water brought to the boil for five or so minutes. Take off heat and drain. Add to softened Onion to mashed peas and mash some more. Crush and fine chop three cloves of Garlic, add to mix and mash. Add a cupful (150-200ml) or less of Olive oil to the mix and mash further until the chick peas, onion and garlic mixture resembles golden grainy mud like in the picture below.


Decant into bowl of choice. Can be served still warm as is, or left to cool in fridge for later use. Experience shows that the resultant mix will keep for a couple of weeks in an old sealed margarine tub without going manky. Pat yourself on the back, you have made Hummus. Now go off and split the atom or something else equally as ingenious. You are officially a clever person.

Additional flavourings;
Once the base mix is done, all you have to do is take out as much as you need and add flavouring of choice, be it salt and black pepper, red pepper, chili, curry powder, you name it. I've taken to adding whizzed up (Liquefied in food processor) Broccoli with a large pinch of Parmesan or other strong cheese. Beetroot with sea salt and a dash of vinegar. The mix can be briefly heated in a saucepan or microwave and served hot if desired. Makes for variety and prevents boredom. This also means you can invite any Vegetarians (Should they be fortunate enough to have you for a friend, or any friends at all, apart from other like minded moralisers) over to dine and without bestirring them to their usual state of high moral rectitude.

For those who might complain "But where's the Tahini?" I usually try to explain that we like it better this way. Well, at least until Wife gets bored with Hummus as an accompaniment to every meal. I give it a month, maybe even two weeks before she's asking me for buttered baked potatoes, french fries, Lasagna, or garlic fried rice again. Heavy sigh.

Yet another musical interlude

Another blast from my past. Foreigner's track 'Urgent' from 1981 with a Sax solo that just blows you away. The kind of songs that just grip you by your hair and drag you along.


....and of course 'Bad Company' by Bad Company.
Plus this track, 'Rock and Roll fantasy'.

Whenever I listen to these tracks I'm always taken by the sheer musicianship of these guys. No cheap three chord thrash. You can pick out every note, drumbeat and chord. Superb.

No sign of last nights nocturnal visitor, so I assume he's gone looking for a meal elsewhere. Hi ho, back to the grindstone.

Wild life

I think we have a Cougar in the area. A big ugly moggy. One of these.
Went out to hand our landlady the monthly rent cheque this evening when we heard a noise like nothing I'd ever heard before. A kind of double scream repeated. One long cry followed by a shorter one, twice. A bit like the scream of an Eagle, but without that raspy quality big birds have in their cries, yet definitely not human. The scream, definitely not a screech, was from quite close to, less than a hundred and fifty metres if my educated ears are any judge.

Landlady looked alarmed but before she disappeared indoors I was treated to the gossip that a Cougar had been sighted recently about a mile away, so it might just have been one. Although I've never actually seen a North American Cougar in the flesh. Not that keen on meeting one close to without a gun in my hands, although I'm told they're quite shy of people, so perhaps the chances are fairly remote.

Landlady's cat also disappeared sharpish which is another clue, as that particular domestic feline isn't fazed by any of our population of Bald Eagles or the local dogs. He doesn't take any nonsense from the Raccoons either, feisty little so-and -so. Whatever made the noise has to be a bit out of the ordinary as Dog is fussing and can't settle. Well, if it hangs around for a few days I'll give the Wildlife Officer a ring and ask what they do about Cougars, if anything. I know they trap Black Bear (Ursus americanus vancouveri) and relocate them. Not sure about Cougars.

If we do have a Cougar locally then our local population of Black-tail (Mule) Deer had better look out, although I think they are more at risk from the traffic. One sturdy looking buck bounced across the road right in front of me when I was driving home this afternoon. Good test of reflexes I can tell you. Good test of my vans brakes too.

For myself I'm not awfully troubled as I usually tote a fairly hefty five foot long wooden walking pole when I go out. This is to take pressure off an old Rugby injury which flares up from time to time, but also for feeding to predators who get too close to Dog. Point first, a la kebab if you catch my drift. Although my older brother's assertion that "My first confrontation with a Bear will be your last". While Dog and I are out walking in the woods I give Mr Bruin plenty of time to get out of the way by calling loudly to Dog. I try to work on the principle that most wild animals (With the notable exceptions of Grizzly or Polar Bears) generally have the sense to leave people alone unless surprised, starving or provoked. In this way we do not confront, we co-exist.

Gosh, all this excitement fair wears you out. Time for a Jameson's I think.

Real Comedy

The physical, in the shape of the infamous Morcambe & Wise mimed 'Breakfast sketch'.

And arguably one of the best verbal comedy sketches of all time from Ronnie Corbett and Ronnie Barker.

A couple of blasts from my past

Fire on High. Track one, side one from 'Face the Music'.



'Big wheels', from the 'Out of the Blue' double album. Can't remember the track off the top of my head. Think it was on the same disc as 'Mr Blue Sky' and 'Summer and Lightning'. Web searches bring it up as track 11, side one, disc one. Lost my copy in the move from England. Heavy sigh.

I like these videos.

Michael Crichton RIP

Michael Crichton, author, died of cancer at the age of 66 today. The creator of such works as 'The Andromeda Strain', 'Jurassic park' and 'Timeline' will be sadly missed. Liked his output, and I recall devouring the Andromeda Strain on the day of purchase, sitting in coffee bars, on trains and later at home, reading continuously.

I can only wish my own work could be so well received. God speed Michael.

Things I never knew could happen

Price of gas locally has just edged below a dollar a litre which should make travelling a bit cheaper. Nice day, but quite brisk outside and I've started to wonder when the first low level snows will arrive. Friends who have lived on the island for some time are remarking that it feels distinctly colder this year.

Was watching some UK Webcams last night and found out that apparently it's illegal to walk through parts of London, England in fancy dress. Some people I know did this in the early hours of the morning (4am Pacific Standard Time, 12pm GMT) and were accosted by some council employees who 'arrested' them.

I don't get this. With all London's ethnic diversity, why was a group of apparently law abiding citizens thus treated? They chanted no slogans. They carried no placards. They brandished no weapons. They just walked, chatting to each other while some of them wore masks like these. They posed no threat to public order. What is going on over there?

A musical interlude

Just found this old Moody Blues track on Youtube. There are a lot of good memories associated with it, and I will be passing the time while waiting for a few people I know to take a little walk in fancy dress in London. Cannot be there, so I'm going to stay up late and watch the fun, or lack of it, via webcam. If of course the webcams aren't shut down for some reason.