Local weather gossip

Local gossip reports that there have been falls of snow on Mt Washington (Which probably means nothing) and frost on cars in Nanaimo in the early hours of Wednesday morning (Frost in Nanaimo? Good gravy Gertrude! What is the world coming to?).

Lots of Black Sea Nettle jellyfish have been washed up at the high water mark of late. The peak of the infestation has gone now, but these a nasty little critters with a painful sting, so Dog and I have been avoiding the waterfront. According to some sources this is all the fault of that pesky globule warming, but according to the more down to earth is nothing unusual.

The seal that was killed a couple of weeks ago is now just bare bones and the rags of it's pelt. The skull appears intact, so maybe my initial thoughts about it catching a crack on the head from a speeding boat were wrong.

Anyway, this week it's Thanksgiving weekend. Wife and I will be giving thanks that we still live here, despite the forecast for rain on Sunday and Monday. As soon as we get our next tranche of immigration paperwork dealt with, hopefully in the next two months, we can take up all the offers of work that now keep getting thrown our way.

God bless Canada, BC, Nanaimo, and all our friends, old and new. Not forgetting our local immigration officers, the Central Vancouver Island Multicultural Society, The local library, ICBC, and everyone else who has been so darned helpful. Happy thanksgiving to you all.

Two good things about the current financial crisis

Two really good things about the current stock market falls;

Firstly, the price of gas has dropped from 129.9 to 117.9 in the past four days locally.

Secondly, all the whinging and bitching about 'Climate Change' seems to have dropped off the media's main agenda.

Wonder if the politicians will have the sense to drop the raft of ineffective and purely superficial 'green' tax plans as well. We can but hope. There's an election coming up, and although I can't vote, am not keen in seeing the NDP or Greens gain any more power. Canada can't afford them.

I don't own shares, so there's no tears shed there. We've spread our capital around a number of banks, so we won't lose if another one goes under, although we've been pretty careful where we stashed our savings. Wife and I have both got jobs. We're just hunkering down, continuing to work hard and waiting for the fiscal storms to pass.

I'm all right

Kind of sums up the way I feel right now. Things are a bit tough in some ways but Wife and I are still breathing and doing better all the time despite tripping over the bureaucracy at seemingly every turn ("No, your work permit doesn't cover that" or "We have to charge you foreign student prices"). Immigration to Canada is an expensive business unless you're being 'imported' by a big employer with an HR department well versed in the byzantine ways of Work Permits etc.

Still, lots of help if you up and ask for it, and the rules are changing week on week to allow people like me to bring their skills to a market which needs those skills (Electrical, Plumbing, Carpentry, Computing). As the song says, "I'm all right".

Down on Wall Street

A lot of the media are going on about the current credit crisis and how it is the fault of those greedy, hateful capitalists and Republicans who leech off the poor. This, I find is a very blinkered point of view. The source of the problem actually comes from a relatively obscure piece of American legislation called the Community Reinvestment Act. I know the following explanation is just a broad brushstroke precis, but the facts are true enough.

A little lesson in economic history and the law of unintended consequences is in order here. Essentially the CRA forced mortgage lenders to lend to people who would usually be considered a 'bad credit risk'. Originally passed into US law by the Democratic Carter Administration, it's provisions were massively extended by the Democratic Clinton Administration so that even more of these 'sub prime' mortgages were issued with the increased risk of default in case of economic crisis.

More Americans wanting to buy put pressure on housing stock and forced the price of a home up, thus increasing the need for more credit. This had a knock on effect to all the other markets, UK and European included. The lenders, forced to lower their lending criteria did what they thought was sensible to spread their exposure to bad debt by selling the debt on. Bankers and traders bought and sold the risks rather like anything else they do to make money. In reality what they were doing was trading what was little better than 'junk bonds'. Thus the bubble grew and the exposure to those on the margin of creditworthiness expanded. All it required was a small economic downturn for the whole jerry built monstrosity to go completely tits up.

In the meantime, Congress blocked all attempts by the Republican Bush Administration, who seemed to think all this bad debt was a truly awful idea, to water down the CRA. While Congress blocked all moves to slow the increase of potential bad debt because it would be 'unfair' Bankers kept on selling the risks on in s kind of ever increasing money-go-round to spread the load, rather like a game of 'pass the parcel' where the 'gift' inside isn't all that pleasant to get lumbered with. For some this was not all bad. Those with a little foresight and understanding of what was really going on understood what was coming, made their money and got out of the business of selling credit risk into precious metals. Others didn't. They got well and truly clobbered.

Gasoline prices pushed up by speculators and driven by media panics grew. The costs of transport grew, pushing everyday prices up. Meanwhile the property market saturated, over saturated, then burst when the underlying inflationary spiral of costs not included in the inflation figures got ahead of many people's economic capacity. Companies shed workforce in order to survive. People who were no longer able to pay off their debt began to default on the loans. Bankruptcies grew with ever more foreclosures until the market in selling the mortgage risks collapsed, sucking the rest of the stock market down into a kind of financial space time anomaly.

Banks with a heavy speculative exposure to these risks such as Lehmans in the USA, and Northern Rock and HBOS in the UK, were bound to be hit badly. Anyone with even a little understanding of the market could predict that. Fortunately, the Canadian market does not seem to have quite such a problem with exposure to such bad risks, although property values here on Vancouver Island are going to take a serious hit as many Americans are forced to sell their holiday homes. I'm thinking 15-25% price drops overall.

Looking on the bright side of the whole mess, this crisis means Wife and I can probably buy a decent lot for our dream house at a reasonable price. Wife has a new job. I have a new job. Who says it's all doom and gloom?

Idle musings

Wife is back tomorrow evening and I am busy preparing for her homecoming.  Kids appear to be well settled into academic life and working hard.  This news is positive.

It's a bit chilly outside at the moment and I'm going to switch the heating on tomorrow if things don't warm up a tad.  The Autumn leaves are beginning to fall, and I'm checking out the BC Fisheries website before tootling off for a late afternoons casting my lures into the water.  The reports seem to indicate that the Fraser River Salmon run is slightly bigger than expected, so that bodes well for an early evenings sport.  Not that I'm likely to catch anywhere near my limit.

What an excellent idea

When I lived in the UK, I was quite impressed with a certain politician called Boris Johnson, despite a buffoonish facade and questionable judgement in his choice of relationships, an educated and erudite man with much to commend him to the voter. Now he is Mayor of London, he and his team have come up with the epic wheeze of building a whole new International Airport to the East of London on a new Island in the Thames Estuary.

The proposed airport is to be built on an island built on Landfill.

This is an excellent proposal because:

a) It deals with the huge problem of insufficient landfill for Britains growing population.
b) Whilst there will be environmental impacts, there are greater environmental benefits, such as;
A 'green field' site which does not build over much needed agricultural land
A shift away from the overcrowded Heathrow
Lower noise levels

c) New, high speed rail links and supporting infrastructure can be designed in from the beginning, instead of being poorly thought through and inefficient afterthoughts.
d) It works with proven technology.
e) The strategy has worked for a number of other sites around the globe. For example, BC's own YVR (Vancouver) is built on mainly reclaimed land. The Chinese built a new airport on a similar scheme.
f) Such a scheme will provide something like well over five years employment in construction and associated industries when jobs will be at a premium.
g) Security.
h) Since Boris's Dad has connections with the World Bank, finance might not be such a limiting factor either.

This idea, as they say, has got legs.

Kicking back

Wife is away until 24th. I keep busy. My superiors are pleased with my work, and the sun is shining. This means a new pair of polarised sunglasses have been purchased to counteract the glare off the hood of our little SUV.

Today's task is waxing and polishing. More glare. Sunglasses will help.

The price of gas locally has only slipped down a cent. With the cost of a barrel of crude dipping below the $100 a gallon mark (and not before time) someone in the supply chain is making money hand over fist. Maybe I don't quite understand the full economics of it, but to my mind, the price of gas is quick to go up, but very slow to come down. Local legend has it as tripling in the last two years.

This fits in with my experience; 2002 was spent in Ontario and Quebec. Price of gas taken from an old 35mm photo of us posing by our hire car at a service station - $0.63 a litre. Summer 2007 saw prices of $0.99 a litre on the trans Canada and around $1.08 on this part of Vancouver Island. Closest local gas station at the time of writing is $1.35 (Was $1.36 until Thursday). It has a way to go down, but down it will go, despite what all the doom mongers say.

Am taking a break from the tedious business of MSS editing. It's not as though I have a buyer at the moment, so, kicked back, no rush. It's how these things go.

Is there ice on Mars?

The news has broken that the white patch observed underneath the jets of the Mars Phoenix lander is water ice. There is ice on Mars. Frozen water. Good old solid state Dihydromonoxide.

Now while this is a long way from even the slightest proof that there ever was life on Mars, it is very heartening. It means that if or when the first manned mission ever goes there, that there will be available water which can be used to electrolyse oxygen for breathing and Hydrogen for fuel to power any putative future base.

Maybe once we manage to get a significant presence off this planet, we might convince the many crazy people on this world that we were actually meant for the stars. The raw elements within us such as carbon etc (Since we are a carbon based life form) were born in the heat of suns and supernovae, so maybe instead of myopically hunkering down on this overcrowded little blue green planet and continuing our endless squabbling, future generations might get out there and expand. It's what the rest of the Universe has been doing since the big bang, so who are we to argue?

Canada Day

Today, July the first has been a very nice Canada day. Not too hot but very sunny. Popped down to Maffeo-Sutton Park on the seafront and mingled with the crowds, dribbled ice cream, mended fences with Wife, of whom I have been neglectful of late.

Unlike a British event it was populated mostly with relaxed smiling people, apart from the one heavily tattooed guy we saw the RCMP leading away. He looked pissed off, but everyone else simply got on with enjoying the music and the day. There was a local Kayaking club recruiting new members, the Army, RCMP, local utility companies, and some community and conservation minded folk garnering support for their objection to the Cable Bay development, which will take badly needed funding away from downtown Nanaimo and spend it building a new suburb instead of tidying up the city. Downtown needs a bit of cosmetic treatment if they want the tourists to come.

A few of the local Beauty contest winners were handing out free flags and badges, and just generally being real people. Noisy, but well behaved kids all over the place. A really good humoured affair. Nanaimo is that kind of place. I found myself wryly reflecting that if this were Britain, and Union or St Georges flags were being handed out to all and sundry, then the local council would be round in a jiffy to nip all this damnable subversive patriotism in the bud matey, citing 'elf & safety' or a complaint from someone who is basically in the wrong country.

For myself, I believe that when in Canada, do as the Canadians do. Which is very nicely thank you. Happy Canada day.

Finished!

Finallly, after just over five and a half months work I have a completed first draft. 130,000 words, and a consistent storyline with reasonably credible characters. I am so bloody tired I think I could sleep for a week. If it wasn't for Tim Hortons coffee (Which I now prefer to all others), I'd be doing a serious Rip Van Winkle.

Doing a lot of volunteer work right at the moment. Mostly for people who have disabilities and need special equipment. It's hard work and leaves me absolutely whacked, but I do it with a happy heart, so I'm not complaining.

Now the MSS is finished, I think I'll take a break from serious writing while the germ of the sequel arranges itself in my head. Once that process kicks in, I'll write the sequel, and see how that goes.

The Summer has finally arrived here near Nanaimo, and there's such a lot to look forward to; Barbeques, Picnics in the Park, the Bathtub races. Well it amuses me, and that's what counts. Might even get some fishing in, although that tends to be an evening pursuit. The future looks bright. Now where'd I put my shades?

Congressman Dana Rohrbacher

We could do with a few more people willing to speak out against the lies like this gentleman did on May 14th. As Wife pointed out, when there are politicians willing to speak up like this, then the panic mongers and snake oil salesmen have not won. He is to be applauded for his courage. A few of his kidney north of the 49th Parallel and elsewhere would be an improvement. Well done Congressman.

H/T Anthony Watts

Am also cheered by the USA threatening to take the UK to court over the imposition of extra airport taxes. It has got to the point where the taxes exceed the cost of the flight, and for what? A phantasm, a bogeyman, a ghastly illusion only kept alive by people who 'adjust' figures to meet their incomplete climate models. Not that any money so raised would be put to any climate protection use, nor that such funds ever could. Their AGW Emperor has no clothes and deep down they know it.

God bless America.

Now I have a Manuscript to finish. Spent half this morning feverishly plotting the blockbuster ending where most of the story threads come together in a real slam dunk denouement. Then comes the hard part; selling the monster that has possessed me so these past few months. Maybe it will come good this time; I feel good about it. The sun is shining, and there's a boat fair on in the Harbour this weekend.

VIRL

There are some things in life that always brighten your day. Some things which, no matter what the rest of the world is doing, just get on with it and actually work properly despite all the metaphorical slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.

Today I write in praise of Vancouver Island Regional Library, of which I am a very happy member. Their web site works nicely, and although searching their extensive catalogue can get a bit user fiendish sometimes; with a minor attitude adjustment on my part, I can happily navigate to order what books and tapes take my fancy. Love their extensive collection of DVD's, even if there is a waiting list for the more popular items.

For both Wife and myself, the Nanaimo branch has been a sanity (And on some occasions a relationship) saver all through last Fall, Winter and Spring. The staff are unfailingly helpful, and despite being the most favoured daytime locale for the down and out population of the city, remarkably upbeat and knowledgeable.

What is best is that so long as you bring borrowed items back within the loan period and accrue no fines, the whole thing is free and paid for out of local property taxes. None of those extra charges for borrowing talking books, CD's and DVD's that you get at English libraries. No 'overnight' or 'weekly' borrowing. You borrow for three weeks at a time, and that's it.

If any of the staff ever drop by in their web surfing (Not that it's likely of course). Keep up the good work. Yes I will return that book. I'm sure I left it on the kitchen table, honest. Sorry about the marmalade and coffee stains. Did my best.

Am feeling pretty chipper because the writing continues apace and is getting ready for a full stretch gallop down the home stretch to the denouement. Have also been given a printer and scanner by a friend, buckshee, for nothing. Ooh look, the sun is shining too. Triffic.

Good times

Busy honing first 70,000 words of manuscript and occasionally visiting the dear old English Daily Telegraph for a chuckle. My problem with it is; although I find it easier to navigate etc than the Times, Grauniad, or Independent, of late both Firefox and IE6 have repeatedly crashed whenever one of their thrice accursed Shockwave adverts has popped up. Updated my Shockwave plugins, no joy. Reinstalled the most recent browser version with all service packs, still my browsers keep nosediving in flames. Quite frankly, if it wasn't for the Opinion and Letters pages and the Matt and Alex cartoons, I wouldn't bother.

This morning I rolled out of my bed to a gorgeous Vancouver Island day. It's quieter than an old fashioned library, with only birdsong and the sound of the tide to break the silence. Oh, and Wife reading out choice bits of her latest Psychology book to me. As a minor act of retaliation, I pointed her at the Wikipedia list of Cognitive Biases and List of Fallacies to give her some analytical tools to work with. I'm sure this will backfire on me at some stage or other when she wants to dissect some of my more preciously held assertions.

Well, time for a quick whiz round the blogs before I walk Dog, spend some time fishing, and maybe some writing. The end of my Science Fiction Manuscript 'First Flights' is in sight, and I have a cracking cataclysmic ending for it, just got to knit the narrative strands together over the next 30,000 words or so. Then of course comes the tedious and soul destroying search for a publisher who will actually look at the bloody thing. There are so many who will not. I think they're all looking for the next Harry Potter phenomenon. Then again, who knows what will pique the public demand? A good story with good characters always has a fighting chance.

I don't mind, I will carry on with the day job and pick up the threads on a couple of writing projects which are simmering on the back burner at present. Maybe start something completely new.

Landmark

60,000 Words in current project MSS. 40,000 or so to go. Storyline good, Characters fleshing out nicely. Dialogue sharp. If only I can keep this up.

Current learning

Today, joy of joys, I finally got my BC fishing permit and this afternoon proceeded to the shoreline to cast my bread upon the waters.

Not that I was expecting to catch anything, although after about half an hour I saw something big and silvery jump out of the water in mid channel. It must have been as long as my arm. Sadly, the bugger was also well out of my reach the best part of a hundred metres off. The currents in the Narrows were as fast as I had anticipated, and quickly swung my lure towards the shoreline and the weed beds. Reeled in and cast again, although I've always been pretty ashamed of my casting ability. Despite being able to pick up large and heavy objects without so much as breaking step, I can't cast to save my life. Can't throw overarm for toffee either. God, it's so fucking embarrassing sometimes. It's not as if the power isn't there, my physical strength is quite impressive, it's just my lousy timing that makes me throw like a dysfunctional toddler.

An hour and two rock snags later, both my fancy ten buck lures had gone and I decided to call it a day. The tide was all wrong, and I was inclined to think I'd picked a poor spot. The tide is too fast just at that spot, and to keep your lure further out you need a much heavier ledgering weight. Not that I'm unhappy. It was beautifully sunny, and I had the beach, such as it is, to myself. There's always tomorrow. I'm working tonight.

Currently the temperatures are a very pleasant sixteen Celsius, and I haven't taken my Polaroid shades off all day. Yeah. Still a chill in the wind, but the forecast is for more of the same all week. I can do this.

An electoral theory

All this evening I've been popping back and forth to the jolly old laptop to see what the electorate are doing in the UK. At the moment of posting, it looks like the electorate have given the same treatment to Labour Councillors that they did to the Conservatives when they got too big for their boots back in 1995. Two years on in 1997, electoral meltdown for the Tories.

There is a saying to the effect that 'those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it'. The British electorate always tire of arrogance eventually. When I lived there, I was always puzzled that many of my fellow voters seemed to vote not with their heads, but their hearts. They would not vote on the issues, or the capability with which results were delivered, but on appearances and attitudes. Vigorous looking candidates with full heads of hair who could lay on the charm thick and greasy were always preferred to the safe pair of hands. Maybe that's true all over the world. The majority of voters will always go for the people with the most hair and a nice smile. If that is the case, no wonder Tony Blair stayed British PM for as long as he did, despite all the damage he did. Gordon Brown does not have a nice smile. To be fair, his economic chickens are coming home to roost as well, which won't help his chances in the next year or so. That is possibly why the UK electorate are handing out a 'hammering'.

This also probably explains David Cameron's apparent popularity; even if I personally find him (and his policies) unappealing in a wet, Haddocky sort of way. Big hair, nice smile = electoral victory. Sounds like a reasonable postulation. Still doesn't explain Ken Livingstone though. Maybe Boris Johnson, clown Prince of the Tories, will oust the unpleasant Newt fancier as City Boss of London. Tomorrow will tell.

Don't care really. It's not as though I ever want to go back to Britain. It's far nicer here. Wife has just taken another serious step towards local certification of her UK Qualifications. I'm proud of her.

Current writing project is running at 2000 words per day and just went over the 47,000 word mark (Target 90,000)without headings or other such embellishments. The story works really well too, although I need to flesh out two of the main characters a little more. It's all coming together.

Time for bed. Busy day tomorrow.

Day off

Nice day yesterday. Took the ten minute ferry ride over to Protection Island and had a very pleasant late lunch at the Dinghy Dock pub. Walked it off wandering round the island, and looking at all the different houses lurking amongst the trees. There's a very off beat vibe, Island residents mostly get about the gravel roads on golf carts which they use as runabouts. One even had his own sea plane, with an ingenious launch vehicle. Notwithstanding all the place names being on a pirate theme, various road names being Pirates Lane, Cutlass Lookout, Captain Kidds Terrace etc. No doubt this was all the brainchild of Nanaimos eccentric Mayor Frank James Ney (A.K.A. 'Black Frank') who was also credited with being a prime promoter of the Nanaimo to Vancouver Bathtub race. We missed last years race, but hope to follow it in 2008. Frank, an ex pilot, died in 1992. I think I would have liked him. The world is a poorer place without people of his character.

Wife was bowled over by the log built homes we saw there (She's always wanted one) and vouchsafed "Promise me Jones, when we build our house, it's got to have a sea view."
"I'm good with that." I replied, but then I can be good at giving out promises when I haven't a clue how I'll deliver. All I know is that the promise will be delivered, though hell itself should bar the way. I'm like that. I haven't failed yet. Nor will I.

et in acadia ego

This morning I took a pause whilst walking Dog along the foreshore, sat down on a large, sea washed log and the phrase drifted into my head. "And I also am in paradise" being one of the translations. The bright warmth of a Sunday morning sun on my face, Dog sitting attentively at my feet, water lapping at the pebbly shore, Gulls arguing. When I closed my eyes it felt like a perfect moment.

Wife is sitting up in bed, reading and patiently waiting for me to cook Sunday morning scrambled eggs and bacon. Thin cirrus cloud is drifting east and south. To the west and south, there are snow capped mountains sharply resolved in the clear early spring air. Down in the narrows, the Herring Run has cleared and the water is crystal clear. The day lacks urgency or anxiety. A day for sitting in the sun, sipping tea and perhaps a chilled glass of wine as a companion to a good book. A little slice of heaven.

When my turn to face death comes, I hope I can greet the old fraud with equanimity, knowing that for a fleeting moment, I too have dwelt in paradise.

Legal!

Today I am a much happier fellow. My work permit was approved yesterday, and today I have a Canadian Social Insurance Number, with leave to remain for the next twelve months. First payday is scheduled to be at the end of March. Not that we need it of course, but it means neither I nor Wife have to return to the UK with all its economic and social problems. We are planning to ride out the UK recession over here, taking advantage of the lower cost of living.

Kids are settling down to life without us dogging their every step, and seem to be doing well, although my thoughts of them are forever tinged with a natural anxiety for the next generation's well being. Youngest is making noises about coming over to Canada to do some post graduate study. Eldest is keeping us guessing. All her activity is centred around her friends, but she made positive noises during their Christmas visit, and if current boyfriend doesn't buck his ideas up, he might end up as one of those sad acts who you find in pubs every night bemoaning the chances they never took.

Spoke to the local immigration officer who has been so wonderfully helpful of late, and offered my heartiest thanks. It's still a scary learning curve, but I think that's the steepest bit over. Next step, BC Driving Licence and Health Insurance. Got to get my head in the BC version of the Highway Code.

Any old road up; the fishing season approaches, I'm feeling pretty amused by life, and Wife is smiling once more. So far, so good.

Per ardua, ad astra

A couple of items of news have come to pass in the last month or two that have quite piqued my interest. First was the E8 'Theory of Everything' postulated by 'surfer dude' physicist A Garrett Lisi. Second was the news of 'First Plasma' on the WB-7 experimental fusion reactor.

Seen in isolation, these two pieces of news might elicit a "so what?" response from the unenlightened. "So what?" Mr / Ms A. Verage might say. "How do a theory of everything and method of attaining Nuclear Fusion fix my leaky tap / calm my raucous kids / lower my rising fuel bills / sack a corrupt politician?" Might be their response. The simple answer is it doesn't, so any debate generated by such a discovery might not be the one A. Verage should be bothered with.

Garrett Lisi's 'exceptionally simple' theory postulates that the interrelationships between energy, matter, gravity, and how it all fits together can be plotted using a single geometric 'map'. His model has come under fire from some grumpy 'String theory' physicists who might be a bit miffed that his theory might work better than theirs, and are a bit jealous of the publicity his theory has attracted. It may even be that String Theory physics can find a common thread (Bad pun, sorry) within the E8 model. However, that is a postulation all of it's own. By Lisi's own admission, the theory is 'young', and 'all or nothing' and 'requires work'. According to some sources, when the Large Hadron collider comes into operation, certain aspects of Lisi's theory can be tested against the results.

The news about the 'Polywell' reactor design is interesting because it may be able to produce the long sought after result of a workable Nuclear Fusion generator. Not only that, but a Fusion Generator small enough not to require a fixed location. In short, something that can put out enough power (Megawatts as opposed to Kilowatts of power) to make something like a Magnetoplasmadynamic thruster work for example. With enough cheap power, there is the potential for more economic spaceflight, more chance of actually attaining the velocities needed to take mankind to the stars. In addition, E8 theory might even provide one of the keys which could unlock the secret of Faster than Light travel.

Of course both E8 theory and the Polywell Fusion device might turn out to be one massively disappointing damp squib; or the politicians, in order to placate the squabbling masses of our crowded little planet, might argue that we should solve all of Earth's problems (As if that were likely) before even thinking of travelling to the Stars and cut the funding.

For myself, I remain optimistic and feel that there is much going on worth being sanguine about in the world of Physics. I will not go to the stars, being too old and farty, but my grandchildren might; and that will be something worth looking forward to.